The Sudan transport study

Thomas Saaty
Joseph M. Katz Graduate School of Business
University of Pittsburgh
United States

Publication date: Nov, 1977

Journal: Interfaces
Vol.: 8- Pages: 37-57

Abstract: The Sudan, population 18.2 million, in area the largest country in Africa is traversed by the White and Blue Niles meeting at Khartoum and blessed with rain. It has the potential to be a breedbasket for Africa and the Middle East. Of an estimated 200 million agricultural acres, only 17 million are now cultivated—4 million irrigated. Essential expansion is needed of an existing sparse and far-flung transport system to develop agricultural areas and bring food to population centers and export outlets. The ADAR Corporation developed an adaptive matter transport plan under direction of the author, based on Wharton econometric models of the economy under four scenarios: the Reference Projection, Agriculture for Export, Balanced Regional Growth, and Arab African Interface. Using an emerging operations research theory of hierarchies and priorities, the scenarios were combined to generate a Composite Scenario. UN Food and Agriculturists estimated Sudan's supply and demand under Composite Scenario assumptions (with 4.3%, 6%, and 7.3% GNP rates). Air, road, rail, river, and port transport projects (103 in all) were identified and prioritized, satisfying economic, social and political constraints. Investment is currently under way along the lines suggested by the plan, with nearly $6 billion committed for transport and agricultural projects by several agencies including the Kuwait Fund, the Arab Fund, the World Bank, the Saudi Government, and the newly formed Arab Authority for Development and Agricultural Investment, a group of Arab investing countries.