Should the UK have Brexited the European Union?

Lirong Wei
Donlinks School of Economics and Management
University of Science and Technology Beijing
Thomas Saaty
Joseph M. Katz Graduate School of Business and College of Business
University of Pittsburgh
United States

Publication date: Sep, 2016

Journal: International Journal of the Analytic Hierarchy Process
Vol.: 8- Issue: 2- Pages: 206-223

Abstract: This paper is an analysis of Brexit, and asked the question, Should the UK have Brexited the European Union? We use the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to model the decision based on Benefit-Opportunities-Costs and Risks (BOCR). The AHP structure considers various factors that may be taken into consideration from the perspective of the UK (Saaty, 1980). Questionnaires were used to obtain pairwise comparison judgments from experts and used to derive priorities for the factors and final decision to Brexit. The BOCR model results are combined in two ways. Both results show that the UK should remain a member of the EU. The referendum used showed the opposite result. The approach followed here can be used to educate people when voting on similar decisions.

Keywords: Brexit, AHP, Decision analysis, European Union, BOCR, Decision making, Benefits-Opportunities-Costs-Risks