Choosing the best city of the future

Thomas Saaty
Joseph M. Katz Graduate School of Business
University of Pittsburgh
United States
Mujgan Sagir Ozdemir
Eskisehir Osmangazi University
Industrial Engineering

Publication date: Jun, 2015

Journal: Journal of Urban Management
Vol.: 4- Issue: 1- Pages: 3-23

Abstract: This paper describes various possibilities of the cities of futures considering various constraints and demand of society, environment and geography. The need for future cities arises because of the rapid growth in population and thereby causing a decline in the living standards. In the United States itself, many people are moving to cities every day. Today cities are getting crowded and if the influx continues at the same rate, current cities will become unmanageable and unlivable. More population means faster consumption of natural resources which eventually leads to ecological imbalance. Already more than 80% of world׳s forests are gone. The food consumption has also doubled over the last fifty years and this has exerted pressure on the landscape through the use of artificial fertilizers. The use of artificial agents to boost agricultural productivity has significantly marred the flora and fauna leading to loss of a huge amount of bio diversity. Another problem with the increasing population and population migration to cities is the rise of congestion on the city roads. In the United States a person drives 7500 miles in 1600 h with an a average speed of 4.68 mph. To accommodate the population approximately 2000 trees are cut in a minute in the Amazon alone. On top of all that, with increasing wealth the average house size has almost doubled since 1970 and this has further caused the decline of arable land and forests. To deal with the problem of rising population and congestion within the cities, we need to plan cities of the future that will be able to utilize the available resources in a more efficient and cleaner manner. The future city project aims to delve into details of various future city models and aims to find out which model will be best suitable depending upon the strategic criteria that we have used to evaluate the various merits of the BOCR model. The four alternative kinds of cities are analyzed below according to their merits. They are A. Compact City, B. Elevated City, C. Green House City, and D. Water City.

Keywords: BOCR, Future city, MCDA, AHP, Analytic Hierarchy Process, Benefits-Opportunities-Costs-Risks